DOI:10.29111/ijlrst ISRA Impact Factor:3.35, Peer-reviewed, Open-access Journal
Research Paper Open Access
International Journal of Latest Research in Science and Technology Vol.2 Issue 5, pp 83-96,Year 2013
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Received : 20 October 2013; Accepted : 25 October 2013 ; Published : 31 October 2013
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Article No. | 10214 |
Assessment of regional climate impact requires high-resolution climate data. We use a Statistical Downscaling Model to develop and implement a methodology for constructing a high-resolution climate projection dataset, based on IPCC scenarios. We use down-scaled temperature and precipitation for different future scenarios and time horizons to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural regions in Morocco. The accuracy of downscaled precipitation and temperature is acceptable. Under the IPCC A2 scenario and for 2020, results indicate annual warming between 0.8 and 1.8°C with warming less than 1.9°C for all seasons. Similarly, annual rainfall decreased by less than 8% with a maximum reduction of 11.4% during the spring. We find that projected rainfall reductions are larger than those made by low resolution multi-model ensemble. Under a warmer climate, projected extreme statistics related to temperature, such as heat-waves, are likely to increase substantially in magnitude and frequency. These projections are useful for the study region where observations are rare and coarse large scale global models do not capture local features. In our study region, the Statistical Downscaling Model appears to be an essential tool for scale-reduction of modelled meteorological information. Results from this study are important for farmers and land and water managers alike to start early planning for cropping and developing adaptation measures including crop replacement and modifications and other means of irrigation and water deliveries, optimal for near future climate conditions.
Copyright © 2013 Adelaziz Babqiqi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Adelaziz Babqiqi, Mohammed Messouli , " Simulation Of Climate And Its Implication On Agriculture In Morocco Using Statistical Downscaling ", International Journal of Latest Research in Science and Technology . Vol. 2, Issue 5, pp 83-96 , 2013
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